Like many of its emerging markets peers, Colombia is fighting strong headwinds.
The collapse of oil prices was a heavy blow. Although it represented only three per cent of GDP, in 2013 it accounted for two-thirds of exports, a sixth of government revenues and about 80 per cent of foreign direct investment. As a result, the Colombian economy has decelerated steadily, slowing to about two per cent year-on-year growth in 2017.
The fiscal deficit exploded to almost four per cent of GDP and the current account deficit topped out at about seven per cent of GDP. On top of that, the collapse in oil prices had a devastating impact on its traditional trading partners, such as Venezuela and Ecuador.
Their economic woes were complicated by years of political mismanagement and social unrest. Indeed, Colombia now faces a humanitarian crisis on its eastern flank, as hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans stream across the border in search of food, medicine and refuge.
Colombia has also been buffeted by a bumpy peace process. Former President Alvaro Uribe has been a constant critic. Although he no longer opposes the concept, he remains very critical of the implementation.
A large part of the population is also sceptical, having been led down the primrose path several times, only to be deceived in the end. Restitution will be difficult. An estimated 38,000 square miles of land were stolen by the leftist groups and paramilitary organisations. Many of these properties were resold several times to unsuspecting buyers, thus complicating the restoration to their rightful owners.
Stipulation for guerillas
Another complication is that all guerillas will need to go before a magistrate to confess their activities before they are allowed to be reincorporated into civil society. This will take an enormous amount of time.
And, another area of concern is that the amount of arms turned in by the FARC has fallen well short of government estimates.